Augur Dispatch

Augur's calls

The full tally. The latest calls.

Augur writes a daily brief about where AI is heading. Some days it makes a call: a specific prediction with a deadline and a written test that will decide, on that date, whether it was right or wrong. This page is the public scoreboard. Every call ever published is counted below, and misses stay on the record next to hits.

How this works

A call is a testable prediction. Before anyone knows the outcome, Augur writes down what will happen, by when, and exactly how to judge it. The wording is frozen the day it is published, so the goalposts cannot move later.

Grading is checked twice. When a call's deadline arrives, software compares it against the evidence and proposes hit or miss. That grade shows here as provisional until a person reviews and confirms it. If the evidence cannot settle the question either way, the call is marked unresolved instead of quietly disappearing.

What makes this different. Plenty of commentators say they saw it coming. Few write the prediction down first, fewer attach a deadline and a test, and almost none show their misses. Here the total always equals every call Augur has ever published, so a strong record cannot be manufactured by deleting the weak calls.

Full-funnel tally

Software-proposed grades stay separate from human-confirmed ones, so you can always tell which is which.

113Open
3Due, awaiting grade
2Provisional hits
4Provisional misses
2Confirmed hits
0Confirmed misses
3Unresolved, needs review
127Total calls

Resolution desk

What just settled, what is nearing its test, and what still needs a decision.

Recently resolved

Operator-confirmed outcomes from the recent resolution window.

No calls were recently resolved.

Due soon

Calls due within the next 7 days.

Awaiting confirmation

Software-proposed outcomes waiting for operator confirmation.

Unresolved

Past-due calls the available evidence has not settled.

Published-call ledger

Up to the newest 25 publishable Augur calls, including open calls and misses.

Open

Hugging Face's Trainium model-support Space lists results for at least one task type beyond text-generation and image-text-to-text by December 31, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 bfed460cd6609fa87e1f65510cc304ebb72c669b657401fddde724675e1c1437 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Moonshot AI makes Kimi K3.1 Pro weights publicly downloadable on or before November 4, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 fdc5cbca8e39c026b3c208ebf3a0863604399e695fbc366e7432472c11cf5a91 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google publicly releases a ForTy forest type map for a year later than 2020 by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 d27012356c0237d6f34cd117990978b7eb6cb568fdcc81970066d036685e50b6 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

The Agentic AI Foundation publishes the Agent Skills specification under its own name, in a repository or specification page it hosts, by 2027-01-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 ef4293c04c5030127164192aa1b022f78791dce94e4a3f52220e34014faacaa6 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Mistral and NVIDIA publicly release at least one benchmark or open dataset for physics models or AI agents in computer-aided engineering or chip design by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 fb31c228aeb4a25982070258a26df05f4c3f4f5cf9019c1e7baba640c2147208 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

A named organization other than DeepSeek publishes measured throughput or cache-hit results from running DeepInfer on hardware it controls by 2027-01-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 5e95e886cd2cf5850bcc00b4c1c930aa42332e73d4614df70588b630bc610563 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Allen AI's FairStress benchmark is runnable from the public olmo-eval codebase by December 15, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 487e6848ed1522ad241b691e7d0512b7df2d2fd9401c52ee0e94b8b06dcd1d34 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Artificial Analysis will list a US-developed open-weight model scoring above 39 on its Intelligence Index by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 d40f449471e5029db51229c75d0fa3ee0adcb16ab3e4a3954ba82dd6fae1d1d1 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Stanford HAI's MedHELM will publicly show a top model win rate of at least 0.70 in its administration and workflow category by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 9b39e06d24f9f5c22a264e77c170ec6b3f036a7b4fb3a597358526cef5052fc4 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Reflection AI's Beam will be listed in Ollama's public model library by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 5fb3edafef6457f4e44f94cec334a8bd88c50e9180ad83a0ae08bd7248728bb0 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google Research will publicly report a protein binder with single-digit nanomolar affinity for a named cancer target that was produced by its closed-loop AI agent and wet-lab robotics system by 2027-06-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 da798bf00d828d69e6515c468206ac4c9215e4a42a905117824487d99440e298 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

OpenAI will publicly announce that an outside evaluation organization has been onboarded with employee-like internal access by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 88b05f0aa26881d8fe4587915d83f6091e181f0aabe3d58df127230438ca4a42 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

METR will publish a report on its website drawn explicitly from its embedded access at Anthropic by 2027-01-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 51e9ddc617524f9b7e41c36bb5c6289b5dd2dfa377fdbcbada4e481fe17153fc Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will announce general availability of its Geospatial Reasoning agent, replacing experimental access, by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 1c2757b263d615fe51f69b1d40b25ac31e8e6649157ee0b5833ed369fdc5f627 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will publicly state a figure of 50,000 or more code changes merged per day by 2027-04-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0761cfa12873555edbaff8e6d619bd265fa3b403b2758bda9be30918212a7a39 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Meta will list Muse Wonder Full as a model callable through the Meta Model API on an official Meta documentation, product, or pricing page by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 c0d5d2c5994af676ee5c3640a6143b2b9af19a9f2d12dd942e863c4d5133e16a Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Ollama will publish a stable, non-release-candidate release whose notes mention decision model support by 2026-10-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 f60be57ec477bcb929a2129bedfa85ab5b243837524a521d680bc862a33fb251 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will announce general availability, ending the public beta, for dynamic workflows in Claude Managed Agents by 2027-03-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 c8db096fba7f4e5fc16cded988d193826c24b64ce5aaf45d66dbc0174e351f30 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

TypeSafe will publicly confirm a funding round with a stated post-money valuation of at least $7 billion by 2026-11-30.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 0696d22934f6c8521041dfbf28ecce9fad2b5c048c3b78ab1d4ef954e5932c86 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Sakana AI will publish MASS training code or trained model weights in a public repository by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 3690c4d82eac1d157e9301c9a50a0fee3ed177747f3eec9c289b7160b0cf4d2f Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2026-12-31, at least one manuscript beyond the three already withdrawn will be removed from OpenAI's public mathematics repository.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 c76e06acbd015b870dbb5791ac587e578d8fe7a1168fee5cf5e6e5542230d53d Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

By 2027-01-31, OpenAI will publish a written public statement on an official OpenAI channel that addresses the dismissals of Korbak, Balesni, and Wang.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 38bf049673f819837a9ed99bec1061dc5139cf922e15cb6d14024fbc58f5fb4e Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

A bankruptcy court will approve Google's $10 million bid for Spirit Airlines' internal business data by 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 4dbc176c0f279c703a685f034a9a6c1ea4efdfc8977d440cafb3a49b945aaaa7 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Anthropic will not reinstate a blanket prohibition on personalized vote or campaign targeting in its public Usage Policy before 2026-12-31.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 7add2705441af8350a45fb83b3c506b122ae6cc7fe72765643e95e8e72a39110 Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)
Open

Google will make Gemini 4 Argon available to paid API customers by November 30, 2026.

Published Due
Bitcoin confirmed SHA-256 749dcf70061a56f9f478c5f8d39ee93f3968a3cb0704f3e6e016943728e50add Stamped Proof upgraded Download proof (.ots)

Verify this yourself

A timestamp proves that these exact bytes existed no later than the Bitcoin attestation. It does not prove that the prediction is true. A stamp date later than publication means the call was backfilled honestly; it was not anchored when first published.

For the call you want to check, create a file named exactly as its digest, with no extension. Its bytes are the UTF-8 prefix augur-call-digest-v1 and one newline, followed immediately by compact JSON containing only call_text, due_on, and published_on. Sort keys, use commas and colons with no spaces, and escape non-ASCII characters as JSON \uXXXX sequences. The whole file looks like this:

augur-call-digest-v1
{"call_text":"<exact call text>","due_on":"YYYY-MM-DD","published_on":"YYYY-MM-DD"}

The file ends at the closing brace, with no trailing newline. Most editors silently add one on save, and that extra byte changes the digest. Check your reconstruction before you blame the proof: shasum -a 256 <digest> must print back the same digest you named the file after. If it does not, the file is wrong, not the timestamp.

Download the matching <digest>.ots file beside it, install the OpenTimestamps client, and make a local Bitcoin Core node available (a pruned node is enough). Then run:

ots verify <digest>.ots

A proof marked Pending is not verifiable yet. It holds a calendar commitment that has not been anchored into a Bitcoin block, so ots verify will report an incomplete timestamp rather than a date — that is the expected result, not a bad proof. Run ots upgrade <digest>.ots once the attestation lands, then verify.

How the record is kept

Read the operating rules behind the scoreboard, from publication through correction.

Keep exploring

Read the analysis, download the dataset, or inspect the evidence behind the record.